It's all about the GREEN

planedoctor · Joined: Oct 08, 2002 Posts: 306

So after the end of January meetings where are we sitting?

The cat and mouse game has began.

Earlier this eve I read the reports that the boys at UAL got their contracts temporarily thrown out.
This was due to their turning down the tentative agreement for further wage concessions. USAir is in the same boat.
They both have had prier give backs to help their respective companies stay afloat.

Bankruptcy

There are some BIG ASS differences between us(CAL) and them. Bankruptcy! That nasty ass word that just makes our skin crawl and our wallets shrink.

So can CAL yank our contract also? You bet your fat ass they can and will if we go Chapter 11. They have to be competitive with the rest of the big boys. They will be forced to if it comes to that.

Does the company want to file? Hell no! Them Golden boys at top will not earn shit if they do.
Will we go Chapter 11? If USAir and UAL are still around come Fall I bet money(my concessions that is) that they will be forced to just to be competitive. I think CAL wont be the only ones jumping on that band wagon either.
The legacy carriers are hemorrhaging. The shitty economy, high fuel, stupid cheep fares are killing them. There is a shake up a coming. Some one isn't going to be around much longer. CAL sees this and was hoping it was going to happen before now.
They kinda hinted at it. They were waiting as long as they could to make the announcement about wage concessions. Waiting to see if USAir would be out of the picture and fuel would return to a lower level.

Give backs

So should we give the company some relief?
That's the million dollar question....OK 20 Million dollar question.

Scenario #1 (Worse of the worse of the worse)

We fill confident in the ultimate wisdom of this company and decision to give em what they want.
Fall 2005 comes around and for some GD reason USAir and UAL are holding their ground, fuel prices are hovering at 48-50 a barrel and the yields still aren't good. All major air carriers INCLUDING Southwest have received wage concessions from labor.
Everyone is scratching their heads. They all cannot do it anymore. Bankruptcy is the only way out. This will free some debits, allow for restructuring and allow by precedence their labor contracts to be shredded. The company can do what it wants and needs to survive. This is survival at its best. They take more and more money. We are now making same as rest of the players.

The only people winning from this scenario is the passengers(low fares), Oil Companies, and the TSA.

Scenario #2 (Bad but do able)

We decide to hold our own. We don't budge on the concessions. The company really struggles. Basically same as above. We get forced into Chapter 11 and about 1 year from now the judge throws out the contract. We are now making the same as everyone else, but we got 1 year more of TOP pay out of them. The company is pissed at us for not being part of the team. There is a big communication problem between the company and the union. The union is stronger then ever, but the atmosphere is fridged between employees and management. Life really isn't good at CAL

Scenario #3 (I'm leaning toward this one)

We fill confident in the ultimate wisdom of this company and decision to give em what they want. The Company and union come up with some good covets and under the circumstances it's a good relationship. Everyone is hurt. It's kinda like a good(if there is such a thing) divorce. Everyone walks away from the table feeling like they got screwed, but know deep down it was fair.
The hemorrhaging in the industry continues. USAir cannot do it anymore. The government money is running out. The government sees the industry need's this and lets USAir fall. UAL isn't far behind. Slowly but surly fares start creeping back up. 2006 is to be a min profitable year. IBT has started openers for new contract. Things are not looking wonderful, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. The company is in good standing with the IBT and will work on returning the wage scale back to pre concession + nice increase.

So again...what to do?

Run Like Hell Away From This Industry!

You have to decide for yourself. I like to believe there is goodness in all. Unfortunately business isn't. BUSINESS IS ABOUT THE BOTTOM LINE. ENSURE YOUR STOCKHOLDERS ARE MAKING MONEY.
I would however like to work in an environment where management and blue collar workers got along and respected each other.
I think I will give it up once....Only Once. But By God when it's Good again I will have my hand out and payback WILL be Expected.

That's my 2 cents!

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